Data Analysis
Progressive Strategies NW is recognized as a regional leader in political data research. Whether you're determining the viability or timing of a campaign, or trying to better-understand an electorate or demographic trend, our reports can help you make decisions more confident.
Some of our most common report formats are below. Analyses start around $950, with more complex analyses costing more. If you're not sure how your need lines up with your report services, or you'd just like to learn more, please don't hesitate to contact us!
Option #1: Profile Maps
This option is perfect for a campaign that needs to know "the lay of the land" by visualizing past election results. It includes any set of past election results mapped out over a high-definition precinct map, including roads and other landmarks for easiest reference. This can include multiple years of results. Districts can see past levy support down to the neighborhood level, or even analyze which communities have supported and opposed past tax measures.
Option #2: Election History Analysis
This option is ideal for jurisdictions who not only want to know past election results, but want to know what they mean for the future. At this level, PSNW will produce an analysis of past election results. Even in areas where precincts have changed, we can isolate the crucial swing areas. This helps to identify supportive areas, areas of difficulty, and likely swing voters. This takes more work because of the detail of the analysis, and because precinct and jurisdiction boundaries usually vary. Of course, the profile maps are included too!
Sample: We analyzed the results of the 2014 Metro Transit vote, comparing performance to past Sound Transit measures. We concluded that the crucial swing voters were largely suburban Democrats, and showed how their support will be necessary to pass future measures. (http://crosscut.com/2014/05/how-metro-transit-vote-failed-so-badly/)
Option #3: Demographic Analysis
This option is great for campaigns that want to know not only the swing precincts, but also the swing voters. Includes everything from the Election History Analysis, plus demographic information from the Census, voter registration rolls, and other sources. Are your key supporters parents with children? Do you need to focus persuasion efforts on renters? Have recent school levies underpeformed among minority voters? Whether you're trying to turn around a losing ballot measure result, or trying to ID voter groups for persuasion, this is a great option for voter targeting.
Sample: Working with Dr. Dick Morrill, we used 2013 election results, combined with Census information, to profile Seattle's new City Council districts. (http://crosscut.com/2013/12/meet-districts/)
Option #4: Prospective Election Analysis
This option is a full campaign report for a potential ballot measure (or candidate). Taking all of the mapping and research from the prior three options, we use that information to inform the next steps for the message and targeting. This requires that we have at least the framework of the measure available to develop concrete messages to specific voter groups. Applying the measure to the background research, we identify potential strongpoints and weaknesses for the campaign to address. This includes a look at the opposition if applicable to determine where we anticipate they will focus efforts and how to prepare accordingly. We also map census data to the precinct level to allow more detailed targeting. The report should be fully actionable.
Option #5: Multiple Districts within Jurisdiction or Election Scenarios
This is an uncommonly detailed option, but is available to cover a situation where multiple reports are required for the same, or overlapping jursidictions. An example of this would be if we create an Option #4 report for a School District looking at running a February bond measure, and are then asked to create a full separate report for a November capital levy so that the district can compare options. Often, this is the type of report that we do for PACs that are looking to support or oppose multiple candidates within a jurisdiction and want detailed analysis on each race. It's much more applicable to candidate campaigns that ballot measures, but there could be some situations where it becomes relevant.